Market Commentary 10/25/21

Monday’s mortgage rates should be lower by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point, due partly to strength late Friday. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (1.63%).

Stocks are starting the week with minor gains, pushing the Dow up 43 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. 

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today, the only day of the week without something relevant to mortgage rates. 

The rest of the week has seven monthly and quarterly economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to do so also. 

October’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index helps us gauge consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a small decline from last month’s 109.3 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage pricing.

September’s New Home Sales data will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Commerce Department report covers the small percentage of home sales that last week’s Existing Home Sales report didn’t include. Forecasts show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but I don’t see this report having much of an impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

Thursday is a good candidate for most important day for rates due to the initial GDP reading, but several days may see noticeable movement. 

The calmest day could end up being tomorrow. 

We should see rates move quite a bit this week with intraday revisions multiple days. If still floating an interest rate, and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets.

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